I know of a Viper owner that went through a deep puddle, had water ride up the nose into the scoop and hydrolocked the engine. Result? New engine. Had rain deflector and it wasn't rain but the result of rain that caused it so not really relevant but stated just to prove the hydrolock isn't something hypothetical.
On the dyno question, a 5 horsepower variance is not measureable given the incosistancies of the equipment, temp changes in the engine, etc. Also, there is no RAM Air effect on a stationary car, (fan or not) even if the scoop was design to be in a high pressure area. The fan in front of a dyno car is to cool the engine rather than RAM Air.
The only way you could get horspower on the dyno out of an airbox mod is if the part you modified was a airflow inhibitor at normal engine intake velocity, for example if the airbox opening was smaller than the combined diameters of the throttle bodies. To validate that I ran my car on the dyno with a fan on in front, K&N's with smooth tubes, airbox complete and got 434.9 RW corrected out of it. Next run, a few minutes later to allow the engine temp to return to baseline with no changes except removal of front of airbox, maximizing any positive effect of no rain baffle, I ran 434.2, statistically no change.
Before this dyno run I bought a old airbox front and removed the rain baffle, so believe me I wanted the mod to work, but for me at least is doesn't. Add to that the risk that you'll be caught in the rain, someday somewhere (think VOI7 perhaps) and why do it? I'd rather spend money on mods that add proven power without downside.