No more fuel in a few weeks ?

[Schulmann]

I am still lucky, I am only paying 3.99$/gl in spite of the 35% increase yesterday.

I just read that Ivan caused for 4-5 months stop in the fuel production last year and we still didn't recover from there. Katrina hit much stronger and fuel production will be stopped for a year in the Mexican Gulf !

Who doesn't have fuel at present ?
Is there any area in the US ?

News

 

[thebigsnake]

We'll all be Lance Armstronging soon.
How are you going to transfer all those stickers on a bycicle Andras?

 

[Schulmann]

I saw in Vegas that Porsche is making high end bicycles.
I will do like the Flintstones.
I will push my car ....

 

[Yellow32]

Regarding Ivan I think you mean crude oil/natural gas production, not refining of oil into fuels.

Yes, the Gulf's crude oil production is taking a beating but there are other markets that can supply crude oil including the SPR with 700 million barrels on tap.

The problem is that 30% of the US's refining capacity has been knocked offline and we don't know exactly when that will come back. So, for now we have the fuel remaining in the depots (not sure what the average depot "farm" holds, I'm guessing a week or two worth of fuel) and then they will only be refilled and 2/3s the previous rate...so there will be less fuel unless some new refining capacity shows up...could be rationing or sky high prices or both.

-J

 

[orlandov10]

I'm glad I work from home. I read in the paper some guy converted his diesal to run on vegtable oil from fast food joints... hmmm

 

[thebigsnake]

All those automakers jumped on that SUV bandwagon, and now it seems to be stopping.
Now maybe Porsche can get back to being a sportscar company again.

 

[PDCjonny]

You can be sure that whatever the real situation is regarding oil refining and capacity, the oil companies will somehow come out of this making all time record profits on the backs of the consumers. If they have to manufacture a refining shortage, or make the actual refining shortage worse than it is, they will. The prices will sky rocket to all time high's which we will pay, and then settle back a few cents to appear like things are normalizing. But in the end we will be paying 75% more than six months ago.

 

[Wifey's Viper]

It appears to be a logistics issue more than a refining/supply issue.

 

[Yellow32]

Well yes, logistical issues include two closed pipelines from LA/MS to the Midwest and East Coast which means refined fuels will need to go by truck and barge.

So far, only one refinery (Valero Energy in St. Charles) has stated its strategy and it is to be back online in about 2 weeks (there are 8 refineries offline, the rest have not made plans public yet).

I would like to see more refining capacity built...it's been almost 30 years since the last refinery was built in the US.

-J

 

[GTSPOWERED]

I think that viperjohn has hit the nail on the head. The oil companies are spanking the public and crippling America.

Patrick Mathias.

 

[Wifey's Viper]

How are the oil companies responsible for China's growth? Just 6 years ago oil was $11/barrel and no one was helping that industry when to make a decent profit refineries need the price to exceed $14/barrel. Most refining operations take years to get on-line.

There are a lot of people responsible for the high demand of a natural resource like oil. Kinda funny coming from a group who drive a V10 that gets about 8-10mpg around town.

 

[NascarDave]

You can make BioDiesel from veg oil, lye and methanol. It burns cleaner than regular diesel, produces more power than regular.

DN

 

[thebigsnake]

So "Wifey's" your saying we should give up on this hobby and go back to stamp collecting?

 

[PDCjonny]

Yea, it's China's fault that gas prices have spiked in the last week. Not gouging by oil companies set to make RECORD profits again this year like every year. It's never the oil companies, it's always outside forces beyond their control. That's it.

 

[Casey]

I just filled up with 110. It's only $4.00 a gallon!

 

[Wifey's Viper]

I am not saying give up your hobby. I'm not, owning a Viper costs money and we are very lucky compared to those who own these cars in Europe as seen above. Some of you have some thin skin. But blaming those "evil" oil companies seems wrong in my opinion. Supply & demand.

I can tell you the guys pulling it out of the ground with a fixed cost over the ocean make a whole lot more than the refiners. These are massive operations that cost a truck load of money to operate and the price could move back to $40/barrel in a matter of months.

Also, do you scream at farmers when the price of soybeans goes from $6/bushel to $10?

 

[v10kingsnake]

What king of analogy is that(soybeans) how many products do you know of are made from soybeans! Now think about all the products derived from, or affected by the fluctuating gas prices. how about groceries, heating, cooking, travel, freight and transportation, etc... the list is endless. I couldn't give a flying f*ck if soybeans tripled!
I can't see how you wouldn't understand how those of us viper owners are concerned over the rapidly increasing fuel costs, not to mention SHORTAGES. I talked to a few customers in Atlanta that both confirmed to the best of there knowledge, Atlanta is currently out of diesel fuel. Can you even fathom what that means? How about a tremendous issue to freight companies carring products we use each day. How about the textile mills i deal with that operate on 1,000,000 gallons of diesel/month? These 2 industries employ hundreds of thousands. I say, we are not hypocritical because we are ******** about the rising fuel costs and driving gas eating vipers, but rather are concerned as to the impact this will have on our economy because we're intelligent people. well most of us anyway

 

[vipeuup]

China has been the big cause of gas hikes. My wife lives in China, and I have been there 6 times already. The economy is booming like you guys wouldnt believe. With so many ppl, and alot of them are able to afford cars now. Its also amazing to see alot of ppl driving in 5 series BMW, VWs ect.

 

[Wifey's Viper]

Actually I can fathom that. And more products are derived from Soybeans than you can imagine.

As a note I used to trade on the floor of the NY Merc. Now work mainly on the CME. But thanks for the lesson on why oil is important. It's the growth from China that is primarily driving energy and copper prices.

Also the soybean analogy is better than you think. Try blaming the crushing facility with high bean prices.

 

[Vic]

I understand the commodity analogy-

Its like, if some food item were to increase 30%, you wouldn't take much notice of it, because in the overall scheme of things, its not that signifigant, just one item in a bag of groceries, and after all, there are price fluctuations from time to time, and we shouldn't get excited about that too much. Yeah, ok, but-

What if your entire month's worth of groceries were to increase by 30%, that would really make you take notice! Gasoline has more impact than some specific food item like soybeans, because it represents a larger slice of the average American's budget. A hike in gasoline has a big impact on most folks.

Anyway, whats the play right now, long Sweet Crude, long gas? Seems like an obvious fundemental shift, maybe stretching over 6-10 months. Or would you short it when a top has been posted?

Home Depot and Weyerhauser will be cleaning up....